I began way back in 1987 to publicly worry about our mounting trade deficits – and, as you know, we’ve not only survived but also thrived. So, on the trade front, score at least one “wolf” for me.
Nevertheless, I am crying wolf again and this time backing it with Berkshire Hathaway’s money. Through the spring of 2002, I had lived nearly 72 years without purchasing a foreign currency. Since then Berkshire has invested in – and today holds – several currencies. I won’t give you particulars; in fact, it is largely irrelevant which currencies
these are. What does matter is the underlying point: To hold other currencies is to believe that the dollar will decline.
Both as an American and as an investor, I actually hope these commitments prove to be a mistake. Any profits Berkshire might make from currency trading would pale against the losses the company and our shareholders, in other aspects of their lives, would incur from a plunging dollar.
But I am in charge of investing Berkshire’s money in ways that make sense. And my reason for finally putting my money where my mouth has so long been is that our trade deficit has greatly worsened, to the point that our country’s “net worth,” so to speak, is now being transferred abroad at an alarming rate.
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